The new CO2 tax is knocking on the door: Heat will become a luxury in many European countries that not everyone will be able to afford

Heating costs go up every year. And it doesn’t matter whether you heat with electricity, gas or a wood boiler. Either way, the price of CO2 will soon go up sharply, which will change the situation again. Most households will see their costs rise, the reason being the introduction of a single CO2 price for buildings and transport across the EU.

Until a few years ago my family and I used to heat our family home with wood in the boiler room. It was work, but it was worth it. It’s just that in their old age, grandparents can’t really cut wood and throw it in the cellar. Plus, the price has gone up. So they switched to gas heating, and later to electricity. Today, I try to help them financially as much as I can, but I have to deal with the high heating costs in my own flat. And the idea that the situation will get worse doesn’t really make me happy.

Motivation or demotivation?

From 2028, there will be an EU-wide price on greenhouse gases. Why? It is supposedly to incentivise businesses and consumers to use less climate-damaging fossil fuels. In reality, I am already rather strongly disincentivised by the whole situation to make any changes.

The introduction of a uniform CO2 price will increase the heating bills of all those who use coal, gas or heating oil significantly. However, this gas is also produced indirectly by heating with electricity, and in this case, too, it will certainly become more expensive. It may be less significant, but on the other hand, the electricity providers will not miss any opportunity to justify the increase in bills.

Experts point out that households with heat pumps will be “only slightly affected” bythe increase in heating prices. But can this be believed? What is certain is that at least 103 million households in the Member States will be affected, whether more or less significantly. Personally, I feel that the EU may be trying in the right direction, but in the end it will only be the providers of electricity, gas and other services who will exploit the situation to make things more expensive, and I do not think that heat pump dealers will be left behind.

How will the amounts actually change?

The researchers predict that the price per tonne of CO2 will be set at around €60 in 2028. In Germany and other western and northern European EU member states, prices are expected to change by about €17 per year compared to 2025. In some countries, heating is said to become cheaper.

“In Portugal, Ireland, Denmark and Sweden, for example, the price is already above €60,” says Sara Hagemann, an economist and author of a study looking into the price change. In this respect, people from Poland, Hungary or Slovakia might consider moving to another country. In these countries, the introduction of a CO2 price could increase heating costs for a household by up to €400 a year.

The researchers believe that, given the situation, it is appropriate for countries to provide subsidies for switching to climate-friendly heating systems. But will politicians be interested in what the researchers believe?